Investors' wealth on Tuesday jumped by over Rs 2.51 lakh crore, in tandem with a sharp recovery in equities after four days of heavy declines. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a weak note and tumbled 581.93 points or 1.10 per cent to 52,260.82 during the day amid firming oil prices and relentless selling by foreign institutional investors. Amid bouts of volatility, the benchmark touched a high of 53,484.26 and a low of 52,260.82 during the trade. It finally settled at 53,424.09, higher by 581.34 points or 1.10 per cent.
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Retail investors now own a bigger slice of smallcap companies than at the start of 2023-24 (FY24), underscoring their growing conviction about investing in this red-hot space. Data from Capitaline shows mutual funds' (MFs') average holding in the National Stock Exchange Nifty Smallcap 250 rising to 9.26 per cent from 8.67 per cent during the first six months of FY24, with the number of companies with over 20 per cent MF holdings increasing from 24 to 28. In comparison, MF holdings in Nifty50 companies have gone up only marginally, from 9.67 per cent to 9.75 per cent.
At a time when investors are preferring higher-risk investment products like thematic and small-cap mutual fund (MF) schemes, some fund houses are exploring the possibility of going further down the market-capitalisation (m-cap) ladder to unearth newer investment opportunities. HDFC MF had filed papers with the capital markets regulator - the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - earlier this year for an active micro-cap scheme. Some more fund houses are keen on launching such schemes, say industry observers.
Information technology (IT) companies have been on the road to revival in the past one year. From being the worst-hit sector in 2022 with a loss of 26 per cent, the Nifty IT index closed 2023 with gains of 24 per cent. So far in 2024, the index is up around 7 per cent against the nearly flat Nifty 50 benchmark index. The IT index has been on a continuous decline in the last three sessions.
Investor wealth slumped by a whopping Rs 5.3 lakh crore on Friday as the benchmark BSE Sensex crashed more than 1,900 points to post its biggest single-day fall in nearly ten months. At the close of trade, the total market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies eroded by Rs 5,37,375.94 crore to Rs 2,00,81,095.73 crore. The total market capitalisation of these companies stood at Rs 2,06,18,471.67 crore on February 25.
The rupee depreciated by 9 paise and settled at its all-time low level of 83.13 against the US dollar on Wednesday, weighed down by a surge in crude oil prices and strong American currency. Forex traders said the Indian rupee depreciated as the US dollar rose to the highest levels in six months. Moreover, elevated crude oil prices also weighed on rupee.
Motilal Oswal of Motilal Oswal Financial Services tells Puneet Wadhwa why he thinks the current market levels will sustain.
The domestic equity market, which is on a record-breaking spree, will focus on macroeconomic data announcements, movement in global stocks and the US Fed minutes to get further direction, analysts said. Trading activity of Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) will also innfluence investors.From the domestic macroeconomic front, Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for the manufacturing sector will be released on Monday, and that o,f the services sector on Wednesday. Investors, this week, will keenly watch major global market events, icluding the outcome of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes, scheduled to be out on Wednesday.
At a time when exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were unloading Jio Financial Services from their portfolios, some active fund managers were placing large bets on the demerged financial services arm of Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL), a report by Nuvama Alternative & Quantitative Research shows. Motilal Oswal Mutual Fund and Quant Mutual Fund were the top MF buyers of the stock in August. They bought around 60 million shares each, together investing around Rs 2,800 crore.
Making a stellar debut, shares of FSN E-Commerce Ventures, which runs the online marketplace for beauty and wellness products Nykaa, closed with a huge premium of over 96 per cent against the issue price of Rs 1,125 on Wednesday. The stock debuted at Rs 2,001 apiece, reflecting a jump of 77.86 per cent on the BSE. Then, the scrip zoomed 99.83 per cent to Rs 2,248.10 during the day before closing at Rs 2,206.70.
The trend in corporate earnings suggests that index earnings could fall to the levels last seen in early 2014.
Despite the uncertainties created by rising bond yields and oil prices, fund managers have been proactively deploying fresh flows into the equity market. The cash available with equity fund managers, which has remained lower at around 5 per cent in the past few months, hit a 16-month low of 4.8 per cent in September, shows a Motilal Oswal Financial Services report. Cash holdings in equity schemes had topped 6 per cent in February amid subdued equity market sentiment.
Equity benchmark index Sensex buckled under selling pressure for the second straight session to close below the 65k mark on Friday, as investors offloaded IT, teck and metal stocks amid a bearish global trend. Besides, fresh foreign fund outflows also hit investor sentiments, traders said. In a volatile trade, the 30-share BSE Sensex declined 202.36 points or 0.31 per cent to settle at 64,948.66.
Mutual fund houses have been on an equity buying spree in the past three months as they have invested a net amount of Rs 55,000 crore in them between January and March 2023. The number is more than double the amount deployed in the preceding three months (October to December), signalling improved valuations and favourable economic indicators. The valuations, which had peaked in October 2021, returned to its long-term average in March 2023.
Notwithstanding lower growth rates recorded in the first quarter (Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), which spanned from April to June, footwear stocks have seen some gains in the past two trading sessions. Bata India saw an increase of approximately 5 per cent, driven by positive expectations surrounding a potential tie-up in the sports/athleisure segment. This development is viewed favourably due to the segment's higher growth rates.
Trading sentiment in the equity markets this week will be guided by global cues, Covid-19 trends and quarterly earnings by market heavyweight TCS, analysts said. Investors will also monitor movement of rupee and crude oil as well as progress of monsoon, they added.
Investor wealth worth over Rs 13.44 lakh crore was wiped off on Thursday as the domestic equity markets tumbled along with global risk assets, after Russia launched military operations against Ukraine. Amid intensifying rout in the global financial markets, the 30-share BSE Sensex plummeted 2,702.15 points or 4.72 per cent to end at 54,529.91. The carnage on Dalal Street eroded investor wealth worth Rs 13,44,488.54 crore, taking the total market capitalisation (m-cap) to Rs 2,42,24,179.79 crore on the BSE.
For the first time, the rupee declined to the low level of 80 against the US dollar in intra-day spot trading on Monday before ending the session 16 paise lower at 79.98 amid a surge in crude oil prices and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 79.76 against the greenback but lost ground to touch the psychological low mark of 80 against the American currency. The local unit clawed back some lost ground and closed at 79.98, registering a fall of 16 paise over its previous close.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
New investors should gradually build a 5 to 10 per cent allocation to gold.
Despite multiple headwinds at the start of 2023, the Indian markets delivered a strong performance, posting 19-20 per cent growth for the year. Even as new records were set, investor sentiment remains strong going into 2024, given the lower inflation, expectations of steady to lower interest rates, higher economic growth, and strong inflows. However, the overriding concern for most brokerages is valuations.
The stocks of Mumbai-based real estate companies have been hitting lifetime highs on expectations that launches, steady demand, and price increases in the largest real estate market in the country would boost their financials. Macrotech Developers (Lodha) and Oberoi Realty hit their all-time highs last week, while Godrej Properties came close to its 52-week high last month before witnessing a sharp correction.
According to telcos and analysts, this is due to SIM consolidation happening after the minimum recharge plans were implemented by incumbents.
The 2022-23 (FY23) January-March quarter performance of the country's largest listed paint companies was better than Street expectations. Asian Paints, Berger Paints, and Kansai Nerolac Paints (Kansai Nerolac) registered double-digit revenue growth, compared with the year-ago quarter, reinforced by strong volume/value growth. Falling raw material prices also helped the paint majors hoist their gross margins.
Investors' wealth tumbled by over Rs 7.35 lakh crore on Friday, with the BSE benchmark Sensex plummeting 1,688 points amid a global selloff triggered by a new coronavirus variant. The 30-share index tumbled 1,687.94 points or 2.87 per cent to close at 57,107.15. During the day, it tanked 1,801.2 points or 3.06 per cent. Tracking the weak trend, the market capitalisation of BSE-listed companies slumped by Rs 7,35,781.63 crore to reach Rs 2,58,31,172.25 crore.
Stronger rupee likely to take a toll; Infosys results on April 13 to be keenly watched
Benchmark equity indices Sensex and Nifty closed higher on Friday after two days of fall, helped by buying in metal, telecom and auto stocks amid a firm trend in global markets. Automakers led by Maruti Suzuki India, Hyundai, Mahindra & Mahindra reporting robust wholesales of passenger vehicles and GST collections crossing Rs 1.50 lakh crore for the third straight month in May also added to the optimism. The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 118.57 points or 0.19 per cent to settle at 62,547.11.
Sliding for the fifth straight session, the rupee fell 3 paise to close at a fresh lifetime low of 79.06 against the US dollar on Thursday amid a strong greenback overseas and unrelenting foreign fund outflows. At the interbank forex market, the local unit opened at 78.92 against the greenback and witnessed an intra-day high of 78.90 and a low of 79.07. It finally settled at 79.06, down 3 paise over its previous close of 79.03.
Shrinking inflows and surging outflows on account of profit-booking has curtailed mutual fund (MF) investments in equities since April. The total investments made by equity MFs during the first three months of 2023-24 stands at just Rs 2,980 crore, compared with an average monthly investment of Rs 14,500 crore in 2022-23, reveals data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India. "We are seeing signs of moderation in non-systematic investment plan (SIP) contribution, which has impacted domestic fund inflows in recent months to some extent," says Kunal Vora, head-India equity research, BNP Paribas.
Worries remain on earnings-valuations mismatch, global issues; resolution of the MAT row could be biggest positive trigger
The Russia-Ukraine conflict, which has spooked financial markets globally, will set the tone for Dalal Street this week amid concerns over energy prices and foreign fund outflows, analysts said. Participants will also track key macroeconomic signals like GDP estimates and PMI data for manufacturing and services sectors to be announced this week, they added. "With earnings season behind us and given the overall sentiments, markets are expected to move in sync with global peers in the coming week. "A close eye will be kept on the developments concerning the Russia - Ukraine crisis and considering the inflation overhang, market participants will also observe movements in energy prices," said Shrikant Chouhan, Head of Equity Research (Retail), Kotak Securities Ltd.
With the markets scaling new highs, as many as 43 stocks from the Nifty50 index and 27 of the 30 scrips that are part of the S&P BSE Sensex are trading above their respective 200-day moving average (DMA). The 200-DMA is seen as one of the most relevant trend indicators by investors and traders, who believe that stocks and indices trading above this level possess strength and are likely to rally in the short to medium term, while the ones trading below this level are viewed as bearish and expected to see a sell-off. Wipro, UPL, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Hindalco, Infosys, Cipla, and Adani Enterprises are the only stocks from the Nifty50 pack that are still below their respective 200-DMA, the exchange data suggests.
Better-than-expected financial results in Q3 due to higher revenue growth and margins in key markets fuel the rally
Stocks in the automotive, financial, cement, metal, and hotel sectors are likely to benefit if the Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) comes back to power for a third time. The key investment themes have been identified after analysing the Sankalp Patra - the party's manifesto for the next five years - released on Sunday.
The Indian equity market valuation has been moving in tandem with the US 10-year treasury yield. While the benchmark US bond yield has witnessed a nearly 70 basis point decline since the end of October this year, dropping from 4.93 per cent to 4.23 per cent on Friday, the Sensex earnings yield has slipped by nearly 45 basis points - from 4.5 per cent to 4.05 per cent. Previously, Indian equities' earnings yields rose in sync with the US bond yields.
The Fed interest rate decision, domestic macroeconomic data announcements and quarterly earnings will be the major sentiment drivers for the equity market in a holiday-shortened week ahead, analysts said. Investors will also take cues from the monthly auto sales numbers to be announced on Monday. Equity markets will remain closed on Thursday for Diwali Laxmi Pujan and on Friday for Diwali Balipratipada.
Experts said a future rate cut would depend on the inflation.
Strong Q3 brings Infosys comfort amid macro risks.
